Zuckerberg Orders Meta Into Prediction Markets With New App Codenamed ‘Arena’

Meta declined to comment on the project. But according to the Times report, the Arena application is a top internal priority for Mark Zuckerberg and is designed to run independently from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.

Built on Meta’s Scale

The plan is to use Meta’s combined audience of more than 3.56 billion daily active users across its platforms as the distribution engine for Arena’s growth. That reach would give Meta an immediate scale advantage over any existing prediction markets platform.

The app is expected to launch with a video game-style points system rather than real-money wagering. According to the Times’ reporters Mike Isaac and David Yaffe-Bellany, real-money betting has not been ruled out as a future option, but the initial version will keep users off regulated gambling rails.

Who Arena Is Designed to Challenge

Meta is building Arena specifically to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi, the two leading prediction markets platforms in the U.S.

Polymarket operates on crypto rails, allowing users to bet on election outcomes, economic data, sports results, and pop culture events using on-chain settlement. Kalshi is a federally regulated platform and has processed tens of billions of dollars in contract volume while raising capital at high valuations.

Both platforms have pulled prediction markets well past their crypto-native origins and into mainstream consumer interest over the past two years.

A Familiar Playbook

Zuckerberg has moved this way before. Meta cloned Snapchat’s Stories format into Instagram and Facebook. It launched Threads to compete directly with X. The Arena project fits the same pattern: identify a fast-growing product category, build quickly, and apply Meta’s distribution advantage to scale past earlier movers.

This project also fits Meta’s broader push to grow revenue and engagement beyond its core advertising business. The company has been expanding into AI agents and subscription products, and a prediction markets app adds another category.

Regulatory Considerations

The points-first approach is unlikely to be an accident. Real-money prediction markets in the U.S. operate under tight regulatory oversight. Kalshi fought a lengthy legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) before winning the right to offer political event contracts. A Meta app offering cash wagering would attract immediate scrutiny from U.S. regulators.

By starting with a points system, Meta can build the product, grow the user base, and evaluate a real-money expansion later from a position of strength.

What It Means for Polymarket

Polymarket’s position is the most exposed. The platform runs on the Polygon blockchain and has become one of the more cited real-world use cases for on-chain infrastructure. A Meta product offering similar functionality to hundreds of millions of non- crypto users could pull attention and volume, or it could expand the overall market by bringing new users into the prediction markets category for the first time.

Arena is still in development. But Zuckerberg’s track record and Meta’s resources mean the project carries real weight, even at the experimental stage.