Can Cardano price hit $0.20 as a rounding bottom forms on chart?

Cardano price has surged 9.3% to an intraday high of $0.176 after the Van Rossem hard fork activated Protocol Version 11, while improving risk appetite and whale accumulation have supported bullish sentiment.

According to data from crypto.news, Cardano (ADA) price traded near $0.1745 at press time on July 21 after briefly giving back part of the advance. The token cleared the $0.166 resistance that had capped several recovery attempts during July, while daily trading volume rose as buyers returned after the weekend upgrade.

Cardano activated Van Rossem on July 18 after delegated representatives, stake pool operators, and the Constitutional Committee approved the proposal through the Voltaire governance system. As crypto.news reported, the vote secured 77.63% DRep approval, 52.7% support from stake pool operators, and six affirmative Constitutional Committee votes.

Protocol Version 11 introduced new Plutus functions, revised smart contract cost models, zero-knowledge proof support, and tighter node-security requirements. The event became Cardano’s first major protocol upgrade to complete the full proposal, debate, and ratification process through on-chain governance.

Commenting on the upgrade, Cardano delegated representative Jason Appleton described the governance process as a key part of the event.

“The best part: it was ratified on-chain by delegated community reps before activation. Upgrades by governance, not decree.”

A sustained break above $0.18 would put $0.20 within reach

ADA’s 4-hour chart has developed a rounding-bottom structure from the July 13 low near $0.155. Price has since formed progressively higher lows and pushed through the pattern’s first resistance area between $0.170 and $0.173.

The structure places its neckline at $0.20, where ADA reached a local high in early July. Before testing that level, bulls must overcome resistance around $0.177 and the three-day liquidation cluster near $0.180. A move from the current price to $0.20 would produce a further gain of roughly 14.6%.

Buying pressure has also strengthened on the 4-hour timeframe. The MACD line stands at 0.0022, above its 0.0012 signal line, while the positive histogram has expanded to 0.0010. Chaikin Money Flow remains above zero at 0.11, which confirms that net capital has entered ADA during the recovery.

Daily indicators offer a less decisive picture. The Stochastic RSI has climbed to 81.38, above its signal line at 60.13, after rebounding from neutral territory. However, the reading has entered the overbought zone and could produce a short consolidation before another attempt at $0.18.

ADX sits at only 15.24 on the daily chart. Such a low reading shows that ADA has not yet established a powerful directional trend despite the sharp intraday gain. A daily close above $0.18, followed by rising ADX, would give the rounding-bottom setup firmer confirmation.

Fibonacci levels drawn from the May peak at $0.2889 to the June low at $0.1388 place immediate support at the 78.6% retracement near $0.1709. The next major resistance rests at the 61.8% level of $0.1962, just below the rounding bottom’s $0.20 neckline. A breakout there could open $0.2139 and $0.2316.

Large holders had accumulated before the hard fork. Santiment data showed that wallets with 100,000 to 100 million ADA held 25.6 billion tokens, their largest balance since February 2023. Smaller wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA reduced their combined balance by about 0.7% over four months.

Derivatives traders also increased exposure before the upgrade. Cardano futures open interest rose from $385 million to $445 million between Monday and Thursday, while the funding rate turned positive at 0.0042%, according to CoinGlass data. Positive funding means long traders are paying shorts, though excessive leverage could increase liquidation risk.

The three-day liquidation heatmap places the nearest large short cluster between $0.179 and $0.180. A break through that area could force bearish positions to close and accelerate the move toward $0.196. Below the market, concentrated long liquidations sit near $0.172, $0.169, $0.165, and $0.160.

Global markets supplied another tailwind. South Korea’s Kospi gained 3.6%, Japan’s Nikkei rose 3.3%, and Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 4.2% as semiconductor shares recovered from last week’s sell-off, according to the Associated Press. Bitcoin’s return above $66,000 also directed fresh demand toward high-beta altcoins.

Loss of $0.169 would weaken the recovery setup

Cardano’s bullish case depends first on the $0.170 Fibonacci level and the former breakout zone around $0.169. A daily close below that region would place ADA back inside its July range and expose the 4-hour rounding bottom to invalidation.

Further selling could pull the token toward $0.165, followed by $0.160 and the pattern floor near $0.155. A break below $0.155 would erase the sequence of higher lows, while the June bottom at $0.138 would become the next major support.

Cardano’s fundamentals still present a separate risk. DeFiLlama data places network total value locked near $86 million, far below the capital held by competing layer-1 networks. Van Rossem must lead to measurable growth in users, transactions, and locked capital for the upgrade’s price impact to last.

Security concerns have also returned after a Wanchain-linked Cardano bridge exploit drained about 515 million NIGHT tokens worth roughly $9 million, crypto.news reported. Although the incident did not compromise Cardano’s base layer, further ecosystem losses could hurt developer and investor confidence.

Oil prices and the U.S.-Iran conflict remain the primary macro threats. Renewed strikes or disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could lift energy costs, revive inflation fears, and reduce demand for speculative assets. Under those conditions, ADA could lose $0.169 before the rounding bottom reaches its $0.20 neckline.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.